Alternative result of every Premier League gameweek 4 fixture, according to expected goals

Arsenal’s 2-2 draw with Tottenham Hotspur was quite the thriller at the Emirates.

The Gunners were unlucky not to get the win having seen plenty of the ball in the final third and may well have claimed the three points had it not been for Hugo Lloris.

NINTCHDBPICT000518028701 - Alternative result of every Premier League gameweek 4 fixture, according to expected goals
Hugo Lloris produced a string of fine saves for Spurs
AFP or licensors

The French World Cup winner was in fine form with his gloves to deny Nicolas Pepe, Matteo Guendouzi, and Dani Ceballos and ensure Spurs came out of the match with three points.

But how would this match, and the nine other top flight fixtures have panned out based on ‘expected goals’ (xG) statistics?

Find out below how every team performed compared to their expected goals in the third round of Premier League matches in the 2019/20 season thanks to statistics from Understat.com.

What is expected goals?

  • Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
  • Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
  • The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
  • The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

Southampton vs Manchester United

Real result: 1-1

xG result: 0.77-1.90

GettyImages 1171313450 - Alternative result of every Premier League gameweek 4 fixture, according to expected goals
Southampton players celebrate Jannik Vestergaard’s equaliser against Manchester United
Getty Images

West Ham vs Norwich

Real result: 2-0

xG result: 2.21-0.88

Chelsea vs Sheffield United

Real result: 2-2

xG result: 2.28-0.99

NINTCHDBPICT000517718388 e1567335608283 - Alternative result of every Premier League gameweek 4 fixture, according to expected goals
Tammy Abraham has seized his opportunity under Frank Lampard
Getty Images – Getty

Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa

Real result: 1-0

xG result: 1.43-0.31

Leicester City vs Bournemouth

Real result: 3-1

xG result: 1.82-0.59

NINTCHDBPICT000517730325 e1567416579150 - Alternative result of every Premier League gameweek 4 fixture, according to expected goals
Ben Chilwell put in another solid display for Leicester
Getty Images – Getty

Manchester City vs Brighton

Real result: 4-0

xG result: 2.20-0.84

Newcastle United vs Watford

Real result: 1-1

xG result: 1.04-1.05

Burnley vs Liverpool

Real result: 0-3

xG result: 0.59-1.18

GettyImages 1171350714 - Alternative result of every Premier League gameweek 4 fixture, according to expected goals
Liverpool star Trent Alexander-Arnold celebrates with Jordan Henderson
Getty Images

Everton vs Wolverhampton Wanderers

Real result: 3-2

xG result: 1.49-2.00

Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur

Real result: 2-2

xG result: 2.03-1.93

NINTCHDBPICT000518026999 e1567410500551 - Alternative result of every Premier League gameweek 4 fixture, according to expected goals
Spurs and Arsenal fought out a thrilling draw at the Emirates
Getty Images – Getty

Saturday is GameDay on talkSPORT and talkSPORT 2 as we become your go to destination for all the Premier League action.

We’ll bring you LIVE commentary of Premier League games across all three time slots on Saturday – 12.30pm, 3pm and 5.30pm – delivering award-winning coverage to more GameDay listeners than ever.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *