Alternative result of every Premier League gameweek 3 fixture, according to expected goals

Another Premier League weekend is done and unsurprisingly, dramatic twists and turns were in abundance.

There were wins for Liverpool and Chelsea, who got past Arsenal and Norwich respectively, while Tottenham surprisingly lost at home to Newcastle.

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Tottenham were unlucky not to get a penalty in the game
AFP or licensors

Manchester United also suffered a shock defeat, losing at home to Crystal Palace, while Manchester City got back to winning ways after easing past Bournemouth.

Aston Villa got their first win of the season after beating Everton and there were away victories for Leicester, Southampton and West Ham.

But how would the matches have panned out based on ‘expected goals’ (xG) statistics?

Find out below how every team performed compared to their expected goals in the third round of Premier League matches in the 2019/20 season thanks to statistics from Understat.com.

What is expected goals?

  • Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
  • Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
  • The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
  • The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

Aston Villa vs Everton

Real result: 2-0

xG result: 0.86-1.26

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New Villa striker Wesley Moraes scored against Everton
Getty Images – Getty

Norwich City vs Chelsea

Real result: 2-3

xG result: 1.08-1.89

Brighton vs Southampton

Real result: 0-2

xG result: 1.00-2.08

Manchester United vs Crystal Palace

Real result: 1-2

xG result: 2.24-0.68

Watford vs West Ham

Real result: 1-3

xG result: 2.29-3.46

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Haller’s brace helped West Ham beat the Hornets
Getty Images – Getty

Sheffield United vs Leicester City

Real result: 1-2

xG result: 0.65-0.70

Liverpool vs Arsenal

Real result: 3-1

xG result: 2.79-0.99

Bournemouth vs Manchester City

Real result: 1-3

xG result: 1.89-3.13

Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United

Real result: 0-1

xG result: 1.26-0.51

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Spurs suffered a surprise defeat at home to Newcastle
Getty Images – Getty

Wolves vs Burnley

Real result: 1-1

xG result: 1.33-1.23


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