Premier League table 2018/19: Alternative standings show how division should have finished, based on expected goals

The Premier League season is done and dusted and in the record books.

Manchester City are worthy champions, pipping Liverpool to the post thanks to a 4-1 victory over Brighton & Hove Albion on the final day.

 

Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur took the last two Champions League places, while Arsenal and Manchester United, for the time being, will be in the Europa League next term.

That is unless the Gunners win the final of the competition laters this month, against Chelsea, then they will also be in the Champions League.

We say farewell to Huddersfield Town, Fulham, and Cardiff City, who will all be relegated to the Championship.

But were all the clubs deserving of their final positions in the top-flight?

One of the best ways to take a look at this is through ‘Expected Goals’.

 

How would the Premier League table look if it was based on results calculated by the statistic?

Here at talkSPORT.com we’re always keeping an eye on Understat.com to see how clubs are performing based on their xG stats.

Find out how the stats believe the Premier League SHOULD have finished below…

What is expected goals?

  • Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
  • Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
  • The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
  • The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

20. Huddersfield – Real position = 20

Games played – 38

Real points = 16 | Expected points = 29.61

19. Fulham – Real position = 19

Games played – 38

Real points = 26 | Expected points = 33.60

18. Brighton – Real position = 17

Games played – 38

Real points = 36 | Expected points = 36.19

END 1 - Premier League table 2018/19: Alternative standings show how division should have finished, based on expected goals
Brighton & Hove Albion managed to stay up but statistics show it could have been very different for them

17. Cardiff –  Real position = 18

Games played – 38

Real points = 34 | Expected points = 37.45

16. Newcastle –  Real position = 13

Games played – 38

Real points = 45 | Expected points = 39.22

14. Burnley –  Real position = 15

Games played – 38

Real points = 40 | Expected points = 42.00

15. West Ham – Real position = 10

Games played – 38

Real points = 52 | Expected points = 43.72

END 2 - Premier League table 2018/19: Alternative standings show how division should have finished, based on expected goals
West Ham United over-performed this season, according to statistics

13. Southampton –  Real position = 16

Games played – 38

Real points = 39 | Expected points = 45.11

12. Watford –  Real position = 11

Games played – 38

Real points = 50 | Expected points = 46.00

11. Bournemouth –  Real position = 14

Games played – 38

Real points = 45 | Expected points = 51.49

10. Crystal Palace –  Real position = 12

Games played – 38

Real points = 49 | Expected points = 51.93

END 3 - Premier League table 2018/19: Alternative standings show how division should have finished, based on expected goals
Crystal Palace celebrate their enthralling end of season win over Bournemouth

9. Everton –  Real position = 8

Games played – 38

Real points = 54 | Expected points = 55.54

8. Leicester –  Real position = 9

Games played – 38

Real points = 52 | Expected points = 56.24

7. Arsenal –  Real position = 5

Games played – 38

Real points = 70 | Expected points = 58.97

END 4 - Premier League table 2018/19: Alternative standings show how division should have finished, based on expected goals
Arsenal need to improve if they are to challenge next season

6. Wolves –  Real position = 7

Games played – 38

Real points = 57 | Expected points = 59.91

5. Tottenham Hotspur –  Real position = 4

Games played – 38

Real points = 71 | Expected points = 61.44

END 6 - Premier League table 2018/19: Alternative standings show how division should have finished, based on expected goals
Tottenham Hotspur scraped into the top four by the skin of their team after a tough season but stats suggest they were only worth a fifth-place finish

4. Manchester United –  Real position = 6

Games played – 38

Real points = 66 | Expected points = 61.86

END 7 - Premier League table 2018/19: Alternative standings show how division should have finished, based on expected goals
Manchester United have under-performed this season and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer could soon find himself under a lot of pressure

3. Chelsea  –  Real position = 4

Games played – 38

Real points = 72 | Expected points = 71.45

END 8 - Premier League table 2018/19: Alternative standings show how division should have finished, based on expected goals
Chelsea were worthy of their third place finish

2. Liverpool –  Real position = 2

Games played – 38

Real points = 97 | Expected points = 83.45

END 9 - Premier League table 2018/19: Alternative standings show how division should have finished, based on expected goals
Liverpool got far closer to the title than statistics reckon they should have

1. Manchester City –  Real position = 1

Games played – 38

Real points = 98 | Expected points = 90.64

END 10 - Premier League table 2018/19: Alternative standings show how division should have finished, based on expected goals
Not only do stats back up Manchester City as title winners, they don’t even seem to think they over-performed by much

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *