Premier League Golden Boot: Top 20 players, according to expected goals

The 2018/19 Premier League has come to an end and what a season it turned out to be with three stars sharing the prestigious Golden Boot.

Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane, and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang all scored 22 times across the campaign so they all get a trophy to take home.

Golden Boot - Premier League Golden Boot: Top 20 players, according to expected goals
Liverpool stars Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah share a Golden Boot

But were they really the best strikers, according to statistics? Using UnderStat.com’s expected goals model, we’ve seen that Manchester City were rightly crowned champions, pipping Liverpool to the title by just one point.

Here at talkSPORT.com we’re always keeping an eye on Understat.com to see how strikers are performing based on their xG season stats.

And they make for some interesting reading, pointing out the fact that perhaps some of the league’s most lethal marksman should have found the net more.

What is expected goals?

  • Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
  • Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
  • The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
  • The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

20. Marcus Rashford (Manchester United)

Games played: 33

Goals scored: 10

Expected goal tally: 11.81

19. Alexandre Lacazette (Arsenal)

Games played: 35

Goals scored: 13

Expected goal tally: 12.03

18. Gylfi Sigurdsson (Everton)

Games played: 38

Goals scored: 13

Expected goal tally: 12.12

GettyImages 1065052268 - Premier League Golden Boot: Top 20 players, according to expected goals
Sigurdsson has netted 13 times this season

17. Eden Hazard (Chelsea)

Games played: 37

Goals scored: 15

Expected goal tally: 11.57

16. Gabriel Jesus (Manchester City)

Games played: 29

Goals scored: 7

Expected goal tally: 12.62

15. Romelu Lukaku (Manchester United)

Games played: 32

Goals scored: 12

Expected goal tally: 13.11

GettyImages 1141758018 1 - Premier League Golden Boot: Top 20 players, according to expected goals
According to the stats, Lukaku should have netted one more goal

14. Ashley Barnes (Burnley)

Games played: 37

Goals scored: 12

Expected goal tally: 13.28

13. Joshua King (Bournemouth)

Games played: 35

Goals scored: 12

Expected goal tally: 13.55

12. Roberto Firmino (Liverpool)

Games played: 34

Goals scored: 12

Expected goal tally: 13.74

GettyImages 1141525609 - Premier League Golden Boot: Top 20 players, according to expected goals
Firmino netted 12 goals this season

11. Raul Jimenez (Wolverhampton Wanderers)

Games played: 38

Goals scored: 13

Expected goal tally: 14.27

10. Aleksandar Mitrovic (Fulham)

Games played: 37

Goals scored: 11

Expected goal tally: 15.45

9. Paul Pogba (Manchester United)

Games played: 35

Goals scored:13

Expected goal tally: 15.88

GettyImages 1141496567 - Premier League Golden Boot: Top 20 players, according to expected goals
Pogba should have scored more goals according to the xG stats

8. Raheem Sterling (Manchester City)

Games played: 34

Goals scored: 17

Expected goal tally: 15.91

7. Callum Wilson (Bournemouth)

Games played: 30

Goals scored:14

Expected goal tally: 16.02

6. Harry Kane (Tottenham Hotspur)

Games played: 28

Goals scored: 17

Expected goal tally: 16.12

5. Sadio Mane (Liverpool)

Games played: 34

Goals scored: 22

Expected goal tally: 16.78

GettyImages 1132599910 - Premier League Golden Boot: Top 20 players, according to expected goals
Mane surpassed his expected goals tally

4. Jamie Vardy (Leicester)

Games played: 33

Goals scored: 18

Expected goal tally: 19.12

3. Sergio Aguero (Man City)

Games played: 38

Goals scored: 21

Expected goal tally: 19.95

GettyImages 1076821160 - Premier League Golden Boot: Top 20 players, according to expected goals
Aguero surpassed his expected goals tally

2. Mohamed Salah (Liverpool)

Games played: 38

Goals scored: 22

Expected goal tally: 21.79

1. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Arsenal)

Games played: 36

Goals scored: 22

Expected goal tally: 23.55

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