Alternative Premier League table after 35 games, based on expected goals

We’re nearing the end of the 2018/19 Premier League season, but so much still has yet to be decided.

It was a very busy Easter weekend of football and there was also midweek action which saw a number of teams finally play their game in hand.

GettyImages 1144875990 - Alternative Premier League table after 35 games, based on expected goals
Manchester City reclaimed their spot at the top of the Premier League on Wednesday night

There was a crucial win in the title race as Manchester City got the better of Manchester United.

In the battle for the top four, Tottenham got a late win over Brighton but Arsenal were unable to capitalise on Chelsea’s draw to Burnley after being hammered by Wolves.

And it looks like Brighton and Cardiff are the two teams who will do battle to avoid that final relegation spot.

But how would the Premier League table look if it was based on results calculated by ‘Expected Goals’?

Here at talkSPORT.com we’re always keeping an eye on Understat.com to see how clubs are performing based on their xG stats.

Find out how the stats believe the Premier League SHOULD be shaping up below…

What is expected goals?

  • Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
  • Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
  • The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
  • The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

20. Huddersfield – Real position = 20

Games played – 35

Real points = 14 | Expected points = 27.75

19. Fulham – Real position = 19

Games played – 35

Real points = 23 | Expected points = 32.18

GettyImages 1143942877 - Alternative Premier League table after 35 games, based on expected goals
Fulham won their second game in a row thanks to Aleksandar Mitrovic’s penalty

18. Brighton – Real position = 17

Games played – 35

Real points = 34 | Expected points = 32.69

17. Cardiff –  Real position = 18

Games played – 35

Real points = 31 | Expected points = 33.10

16. Newcastle –  Real position = 13

Games played – 35

Real points = 41 | Expected points = 34.89

Home 4 - Alternative Premier League table after 35 games, based on expected goals
Ayoze Perez scored a hat-trick against Newcastle, who are now safe from relegation

15. West Ham – Real position = 11

Games played – 35

Real points = 43 | Expected points = 37.87

14. Burnley –  Real position = 15

Games played – 35

Real points = 40 | Expected points = 40.91

13. Southampton –  Real position = 16

Games played – 35

Real points = 37 | Expected points = 42.02

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Shane Long scored the fastest goal in Premier League history against Watford on Tuesday night

12. Watford –  Real position = 8

Games played – 35

Real points = 50 | Expected points = 44.59

11. Bournemouth –  Real position = 14

Games played – 35

Real points = 41 | Expected points = 47.00

10. Crystal Palace –  Real position = 12

Games played – 35

Real points = 42 | Expected points = 47.74

GettyImages 1144315889 - Alternative Premier League table after 35 games, based on expected goals
Crystal Palace claimed a handy win at Arsenal on Sunday

9. Everton –  Real position = 9

Games played – 35

Real points = 49 | Expected points = 48.60

8. Leicester –  Real position = 10

Games played – 35

Real points = 48 | Expected points = 52.01

7. Wolves –  Real position = 7

Games played – 35

Real points = 51 | Expected points = 54.08

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Matt Doherty was among the scorers as Wolves humbled Arsenal on Wednesday night

6. Arsenal –  Real position = 5

Games played – 35

Real points = 66 | Expected points = 55.04

5. Manchester United –  Real position = 6

Games played – 35

Real points = 64 | Expected points = 57.25

4. Tottenham Hotspur –  Real position = 3

Games played – 35

Real points = 70 | Expected points = 58.94

GettyImages 1144649562 - Alternative Premier League table after 35 games, based on expected goals
Christian Eriksen celebrates his late winner against Brighton

3. Chelsea  –  Real position = 4

Games played – 35

Real points = 67 | Expected points = 65.04

2. Liverpool –  Real position = 2

Games played – 35

Real points = 88 | Expected points = 77.00

1. Manchester City –  Real position = 1

Games played – 35

Real points = 89 | Expected points = 83.47

GettyImages 1144871100 - Alternative Premier League table after 35 games, based on expected goals
City cleared a massive hurdle in their pursuit of the title

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