Kenya’s Incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta will win the August general election in the 1st round, pollsters, and analysts project. The facts and numbers are for the 1st time in favor of Kenyatta than before. The opposition coalition despite waging a 4 year propaganda war on the government don’t stand a chance, even in the worst case scenarios. Foreign Policy has analyzed several scenarios and found a bias.
Scenario 1: President Kenyatta loses 5% popularity across the country’s 47 Counties
Using the 2013 presidential election results to predict a possible repeat, we found out that, incumbent President Kenyatta would register a marginal win by approximately 128,813 votes (assuming that opposition coalition NASA over the past 5years has inherited 5% of the incumbent’s votes in each county). The 128,813 votes translates to a 1st round win of slightly over 50.4% (which is above the bare minimum of 50+1 required to win the election and avoid a runoff).
In a reasonably possible worst case scenario for the incumbent, assuming that relative to the 2013 poll outcome, his performance per county including his strongholds, will in 2017 worsen by 5%. We give this 5% to Raila Odinga. Using latest IEBC figures per county, what each candidate got in 2013, and voter turnout, we further assume the pattern will be the same in 2017. Furthermore, assuming that the incumbent Kenyatta loss in each of the 47 counties will become Odinga’s gain, it turned out that President Kenyatta would garner 8,018,906 (50.4%) votes against perennial loser Raila Odinga’s 7,890,093 (49.59%).
Scenario 2: Repeat of 2013 Voting Pattern in all 47 Counties
Using the 2013 presidential election results to predict a possible repeat, we found out that, incumbent President Kenyatta would register a resounding win by approximately 1,072, 224 votes beating Odinga hands down.
In this scenario, the analysis team reviews scenario-1 but assume the incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta has not hemorrhaged any support rather has retained his support. Using the 2013 voting pattern, President Kenyatta would garner 8,489,226 votes against Odinga’s 7,417,002 votes. We have used the average voter turnout in 2013 and assumed it will be repeated in 2017, and made a projection.
As such, President Kenyatta will win the election with 53. 37% against Odinga’s 46.62%. This would be resounding win and defeat for Odinga who hardly concedes defeat rather cries foul citing rigging and imagined malpractices.
Scenario 3: Incumbent Kenyatta Gains 5% Popularity in all 47 Counties
Incumbent President Kenyatta would register a resounding win by approximately 2,662,703 votes humiliating and humbling 72 years Opposition leader Raila Odinga.
Using both Scenario 1 and 2 we make a plausible case whereby President Kenyatta has gained popularity across the country. In Scenario-1, we assumed the president lost 5% support/votes across the country (we averaged this percentage per all 47 counties). In scenario 3, we assume the president’s popularity has gained 5% in each county. We have referenced data by pollsters to assume that more women and the elderly in opposition strongholds are more likely to vote for the Incumbent President Kenyatta thus our assumption that the president is 5% more popular than in 2013.
Scenario 2 is based on the assumption that the 2013 voting pattern is more likely to be repeated in 2017, as such, President Kenyatta’s 5% growth in popularity will reflect automatically. President Kenyatta will win with 58.37% beating Odinga badly and embarrassing the old politician to an extent, he, Odinga, would retire from politics immediately. Kenyatta would garner 9,284,465 votes against Raila Odinga’s 6,621,762 votes, a difference of over 2.6 million votes.
Scenario 4: Four Pollsters Projections and the Undecided Voters Likely Preferences
We analyze 3 latest polls by Infotrak Harris, Ipsos Synovate, and Radio Africa.
- Infrotrak Harris found out that 8% of Kenyans are undecided and that 48% would vote for incumbent Kenyatta. We use the worst case scenario whereby we give the incumbent just 40% of the undecided voters. This would translate to 52% 1st round win against Odinga’s 49%. This outcome correlates with scenario-1’s projection though the margin is much higher but resembles scenario-2 whereby the President garners 53% of the vote.
- African Electoral Observation Group poll projected the incumbent would garner 51.7% 1st round win.
- Radio Africa poll projected the incumbent would win the election with 49.5% against Odinga’s 40.5% with 10% undecided. If Uhuru takes just 50% of the undecided, he’d win 1st round with 54%.
- Synovate poll shows Uhuru would win with 49% against Odinga’s 40%. Over 9% were undecided. If the undecided voters were shares based on the same percentage, Uhuru Kenyatta would take away 6% of the undecided voters translating to 55% 1st round win.
Overall, President Kenyatta wins in all 4 scenarios. Though the opposition is putting a brave face, they stand no chance. President Uhuru Kenyatta is poised for a convincing reelection. His reelection is likely to end the Odinga dynasty and fanatical influence it has in Nyanza Province of Kenya. Odinga’s loss is likely to shift sociopolitics. Kenya is likely to see the last of ethnic tensions during elections. A Kenyatta reelection will be the rebirth of Kenya, socially, economically, and politically.